by Alun Cox MS 

As a new Member of the Senedd, I still find it fascinating how different personalities and group dynamics play out in the Chamber. On the whole, I have found the experience a positive one.

Tuesday was different.

The Labour Party’s decision not to support the Supplementary Budget reminded me strongly of my time as a Rhondda Cynon Taf councillor.

The Labour Party – at its best – can be a force for good. It can campaign for people who are struggling to make ends meet; it can stand with trade union members; and it can be a progressive force. Sadly, it can also be a very tribal body, taking a “Labour good, Plaid bad” approach. This is evidenced throughout its time as Wales’s governing party in opposing motions submitted by Plaid on issues it generally supports, e.g. Free School Meals, Winter Fuel Allowance or Devolution of Justice, etc.

Labour’s decision to vote against the supplementary budget on Tuesday comes just a week after they also sided with Reform to vote down a motion on fair funding for Wales.  This was a motion in the last Senedd that they would have not only supported but could have proposed themselves.  It was bizarre, therefore, that they voted against that motion. Perhaps what we’re seeing is a foretaste of Labour’s strategy.

So, when Ken Skates, acting Leader of  Labour, demanded £100 million for ALN funding, was he being progressive or playing politics?

Supplementary Budget

In order to determine this, we need to look at the background to the issue.

Wales is funded in a very strange manner, which usually means less money when compared with other parts of the UK. But in this specific case, it has worked in our favour. In England, local authorities had built up big debts in order to fund ALN education. The UK government has decided to give local authorities money to pay off these debts. In Wales, where there was no debt, this has resulted in an increase in funding of £327 million. The debate has been what to do with this money.

Why Additional Learning Needs?

Despite there not being anywhere near the same level of debt as in England, there is undoubtedly a need for reform and improved funding of ALN education in Wales. As an MS who represents many valleys communities, I know that in several schools, ALN provision is not a luxury or simply a budget line—it is an absolute lifeline. Our schools are underfunded, teachers are stretched to the limit, and children with complex needs deserve immediate, upfront support, not promises dripped out over three years.

So Labour’s ask for £100 million was not, in itself, a bad thing, and the Welsh Government’s final offer of £120 million acknowledged this. So far, so good – or even so far, so progressive. Sadly, and at direct cost to some of the most vulnerable in our society, the tribalism of the “Labour good, Plaid bad” approach kicked in.

Ken Skates could have taken this as a win and as evidence that Labour will work for those most in need. His decision to vote against the Supplementary Budget not only fails ALN families, but also puts at risk other items, such as:

• • • £145 million earmarked to slash NHS waiting times.
    • £15 million to extend free school meals.
    • £20 million for social housing.
    • £40 million for school maintenance and repairs.

The Optics: Shaking Hands with the Right

So where now for the next four years? Are we to have four years of Labour blocking all progressive policies, seemingly just out of spite and traditional, old-school tribalism?

By voting with Reform and the Tories, Labour risks positioning itself as unionist, regressive and right-wing. There is a lot of truth in the saying "You are the company you keep".

Ken Skates pointed out that Plaid should have negotiated better. This may or may not be true – I wasn’t in the room, although I find it hard to believe this of former Llywydd and Senedd grandee Elin Jones, who led the Welsh Government negotiations. But seeing Labour align with parties that want to slash Welsh public services to score tactical points leaves a bitter taste in the mouths of valleys socialists and, more importantly, means the most vulnerable lose out.

I have no doubt that both Farage and the Tories will start to weaponise this defeat, claiming that “devolution is failing” or that progressive politics cannot govern. The ability to even form this argument is a result of Labour’s decision to oppose the Supplementary Budget.

The 9-Seat Reality Check: Lessons from May 2026

Many people would think Plaid is over the moon at Labour’s collapse in May. I certainly am glad that Plaid comprehensively won that election and firmly believe that Labour did not deserve to carry on in government. But I also believe that in this non-first-past-the-post electoral system, there is space for more than one progressive political party. Labour could be that party, or it could so easily be the Greens.

Labour is struggling to understand the result in May, and we cannot talk about July’s budget vote without talking about May. Dropping to just nine seats in the Senedd was a seismic, historic warning. The valleys electorate sent a clear message: the old days of taking our votes for granted under a “red wall” assumption are officially dead.  For Labour in the Senedd – and elsewhere - to continue as though this is just a minor hiccough and carry on regardless is a fatal mistake.

Why “Labour good, Plaid bad” is doomed to fail: simply shouting “Plaid can’t govern” while refusing to constructively negotiate makes Labour look like tribal obstructionists, not a government-in-waiting. If it defines itself entirely by what it opposes, it cedes the progressive, devolutionist ground to Plaid and lets Reform UK and the Tories dominate the opposition space. A lesson it can learn from Scotland is that Labour cannot compete for Unionist votes when up against real Unionists. It is a path to, at best, irrelevance and, more likely, a footnote in the history of Wales’ political development.

So where now?

My advice to Ken Skates is simple.  Working-class voters in the valleys want a Labour Party that is unashamedly Welsh, progressive, and deeply committed to making devolution work—not a party that looks like it is taking orders from London or playing cynical Westminster-style games with Welsh budgets.

• But there is still time. This is a supplementary budget; the main budget remains in place, and the government will not fall.
• This issue has no doubt strained relationships between Plaid and Labour, but we must both act like mature, progressive parties. The tribalism of “Labour good, Plaid bad” will only help the Unionist right.
• There is now some time before the 2027 budget is developed, and over the summer there is an opportunity for bridges to be built, perhaps with a longer and slower approach to negotiations leading to a future that addresses the needs of the people of Wales.
• The valleys do not have the luxury of choosing between a fully funded ALN system and a properly funded NHS. Our communities desperately need both — and progressive parties should be working together to deliver both.